Expert forecasts over ‘What Azerbaijan may face in connection with the drama around Iran?’

Day.Az interviewed Thomas Ambrosio, an associate professor of political science at North Dakota State University.

-Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei summoned top Iranian military chiefs for what he called "their last war council." "We'll be at war within weeks," he told the gathering. Is the war so real indeed?
 
There has been an expectation of war with Iran, either Israel attacking alone, or a US unilateral strike, or a joint strike, for years now. However, it does appear that the chances for war are increasing since there are a number of thresholds that are being reached in terms of Iran's nuclear program and external circumstances. The latter include the upcoming US election and the tenuous coalition within Israel. Nevertheless, the Israelis (logically) feel that the threat from Iran is far more imminent and existential in nature.

-The Iranian leadership quite often accuses “some neighbors which cooperate with Iranian enemies”. What is your opinion on that, is it only Azerbaijan they mean? And is cooperation with the US and Israel the major reason of the Azerbaijan-Iranian crisis which we can observed the last months?
 
It could also include Pakistan, but it is pretty clear that the Iranians are referring to Azerbaijan, given the close relationship between Washington and Baku. In terms of the Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, there are numerous reasons for tensions, which are interrelated. Azerbaijan's relationship with the US simply exacerbates the territorial tensions regarding what some call 'South Azerbaijan', but the Iranians call northwest Iran.

-Recently, the media published a report by the State Department, stating that Azerbaijan had committed itself to install  seven radar stations along the Caspian coast. How would you comment on that?

A simple look at the map makes that clear: Azerbaijan's importance to the US is in large part due to its proximity to Iran and the physical assets it possesses.

-Don’t you see a linkage between these radar stations and decision of Azerbaijan to rise for Russia rent price for radar station in Gabala (or simply get rid of Gabala station, as some experts think)?

I would guess the latter, rather than the former: the Azeris want the Russians out more than anything.

-Some Russian experts assume that possible war in Iran will harm seriously relations between Russia and Azerbaijan which would likely support anti-Iranian coalition. How would you comment on that opinion?


I think that there will be a lot of sound and fury over Iran emanating from Moscow, but ultimately Russia is going to do very little. I think the logic of Russian-Azerbaijani relations are due to reasons that go far beyond (and deeper) than Baku's foreign policy toward Iran.