Day.Az interview with renowned Azerbaijani conflictologist Arif Yunusov.
How do you assess Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to the U.S.?
It is difficult to overestimate importance of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s visit to the United States and his meeting with President Barack Obama both from geopolitical and regional standpoint and in terms of the resolution of the Amenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The big breakthrough is that settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was discussed and specific ways of its settlement were identified during the meeting. This issue is discussed by Turkey, one of the most important geopolitical players in the South Caucasus and the Middle East, and the United States, the most important player on the world geopolitical scene.
What are your views regarding Erdogan’s statement that liberation of Azerbaijan’s seven occupied regions will aid Armenia-Turkey normalization?
I welcome this statement. Turkey actually insists on liberation at least one or two occupied regions of Azerbaijan at this stage which would greatly facilitate further resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I am confident that Turkey will insist on this. Otherwise, Turkey may have problems with Azerbaijan when question of ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols, which are delayed now, will be raised again. Therefore, Turkey will insist on increasing pressure on Armenia from the United States and other powers. If Armenia agrees to liberate at least two occupied regions of Azerbaijan under the pressure, liberation of all remaining occupied territories will be a matter of time.
The Armenian leadership tried to persuade its citizens that normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations is not related to settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Now that it became known these two processes are interdependent, how will Armenian leadership explain it to its citizens?
Ability to mislead one’s own citizens is an indispensable attribute of leaders of many countries. Armenian leadership has also always misled its citizens. Armenian opposition will try to use possible consequences of a lie of the Armenian leadership to put pressure on Serzh Sargsyan. But the fact is that there is already a serious rift in the Armenian community associated with the establishment of the Turkish-Swiss-Armenian commission of historians that will study the problem of the so-called "Armenian genocide" under the Turkish-Armenian protocols.
Another question is what effect it will have on Serzh Sargsyan’s positions. I personally do not think that Armenia’s current president may have big problems. Because his most serious opponent is ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who is not against the Turkish-Armenian protocols.
Do you believe in this case the Turkey-Armenia protocols will be ratified without liberation of Azerbaijan’s occupied lands?
I am pessimistic in this issue. I believe that despite pressure, Armenia is not going to liberate even one or two occupied regions of Azerbaijan. Armenia will delay the signing of Turkish-Armenian protocols. As regards Turkey, it seems to me that the leadership of this country will also delay the signing of the protocols at least until April next year when President Barack Obama will once again pick up words to describe the events that occurred in the Ottoman Turkey in 1915.
