IMF releases forecast on growth of Azerbaijan's non-oil sector growth for 2009

According to IMF estimations, growth of real GDP will slightly reduce in Azerbaijan but remain positive by reaching 7.5 percent in 2009 but 7.4 percent in 2010, head of IMF representation in Baku Koba Gvenetadze said at a press-conference dedicated to presentation of the fund's report World Economic Outlook on Oct. 8.

"Growth of oil sector in 2009 is estimated at 11 percent with total growth of economy of 7.5 percent but four percent for non-oil sector," Gvenetadze said.

He said that growth of oil sector will reach 10 percent in 2010 but non-oil sector - 5 percent according to the fund's forecast.

Forecasts on rates of GDP's growth can be reconsidered due to changed prices for oil. Oil exports play significant role for Azerbaijani economy.

"Inflation is expected to reduce in Azerbaijan in 2009. It will be 2.2 percent which is stipulated by reduction of prices for import goods and domestic demand. But it will increase up to 5.3 percent," Gvenetadze said.

He said that forecasts on inflation can be also reconsidered as it depends on indices reflected in the budget for 2010.

"Azerbaijani fiscal balance was changed for positive one in 2009 compared to deficit forecast earlier due to increase of average price for oil taking into account by the fund while preparation of forecasts from $50 to $62 per barrel.

According to IMF forecasts, balance of current operations' account in Azerbaijan will make up 19.6 percent of GDP in 2009 compared to 35.5 percent in 2008. This index will increase up to 23.1 percent for GDP in 2010, IMF said.

According to the IMF, prospect of growth is more favorable for energy-exporting countries.

The Azerbaijani government forecaste rates of GDP's growth in 2009 to the amount of 18.9 percent but expects to the amount of 10 percent.

/Trend Capital/