Turkey will be the 12th largest economy of the world by 2028, while Britain will surpass France and Germany to become Europe’s biggest, according to a study released by a British research group on Dec. 26.
Turkey will climb to the 12th rank with a total gross domestic product (GDP) of $3.46 trillion in 2028, a Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) report on “World Economic League Table (WELT) for 2013,” has said.
The same report predicts Turkey will rank 17th among the world’s largest economies at the end of 2013 with a GDP of $822 billion, 15th alongside other emerging markets in 2018 with $1.28 trillion, and 15th again in 2023 with $2.13 billion.
“However, the Turkish outlook does depend on political stability and continued disturbances of the kind seen in 2013 could discourage investment and hence growth,” CEBR notes.
Assessing the latest CEBR report, Ekinci Economics Consulting Founder Sevin Ekinci told Anadolu Agency; “CEBR previously predicted that Turkey would take the 16th place by 2022. The revision might have come after seeing the slowdown in emerging markets, especially Indonesia, and the weak recovery in the European Union. They used to be much more positive about the Indonesian economy and did see it in 10th place.”
Strikingly, the study also predicts Britain’s output will outstrip France’s by 2018 before displacing Germany by around 2030.
“Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest Western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK’s faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies,” the report said.
“If the euro were to break up, Germany’s outlook would be much better,” it added. “A Deutsche Mark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years if ever.”
The think tank’s chief executive claimed that Britain’s economy would grow even faster if it left the European Union.