Qabil Ashirov, AzerNews

Suppose there is one thing that has become predictable about certain Iranian commentators: their ability to transform even the simplest geopolitical issue into a swirl of confusion. Mansur Haqiqetpur’s latest remarks are a clear example. Listening to him, one cannot help but ask: Does he understand what he is saying? Because increasingly, it seems that not only the audience but even Haqiqetpur himself struggles to follow the logic of his own claims.

His recent statement, once again alleging that Israeli military bases exist in Azerbaijan, perfectly illustrates this pattern. This is not the first time Iranian officials or semi-official voices have attempted such accusations. Over the past years, Tehran has repeatedly made similar claims, yet curiously, they have never been able to point to a single location, coordinate, image, or any tangible evidence. The reason is simple: such bases do not exist. More importantly, Azerbaijan’s legislation openly prohibits the deployment of foreign military bases on its territory. Despite this, Iran still clings to these baseless narratives.

But Haqiqetpur, in his attempt to “go further,” has now produced claims that border on the absurd. According to him, Iranian air-defense systems allegedly detected a Hermes drone over Natanz, one of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear facilities, yet somehow Iran was unable to neutralize it. Instead, he claims that the drone flew all the way across Iran, crossed into the Garabagh region, and was then shot down by Armenian forces.

At this point, it becomes hard to decide whether to laugh or to be genuinely concerned about the level of confusion being presented as analysis. By Haqiqetpur’s own logic, Armenia, whose military was crushed by Azerbaijan in just 44 days, possesses stronger air-defense capabilities than Iran. Iran’s own systems “could not” down the drone, yet Armenia, which suffered a decisive defeat in 2020, supposedly managed to destroy it with ease. If this narrative were true, then Tehran must answer a very uncomfortable question: If your military proficiency supposedly lags behind even Armenia’s, then on what basis are you confronting NATO or the United States?

This is not an accusation from any external analyst, but it is the uncomfortable conclusion that emerges directly from Haqiqetpur’s own story. If Armenia’s air defense is so capable, yet Armenia was forced to its knees by Azerbaijan in six short weeks, what does that imply about the true state of Iran’s military readiness? Tehran should carefully consider the implications of the narrative it is constructing.

But Haqiqetpur does not stop there. He further declares that Iran detected “waves” in the Caspian Sea allegedly belonging to another Hermes drone and concluded it had been launched from Azerbaijan. This claim reveals yet another layer of confusion. Azerbaijan openly owns Hermes UAVs purchased legally from Israel. They are proudly displayed during military parades and defense programs. These are Azerbaijan’s drones, bought with Azerbaijan’s money, operating in Azerbaijan’s airspace when necessary. Detecting their signals near the border is not evidence of covert Israeli activity but it is the most normal and predictable military reality imaginable.

It is unclear whether Haqiqetpur is unaware of this basic fact, whether he is intentionally manipulating information, or whether he is simply attempting to manufacture tension where none exists. What is certain, however, is that his statements contribute more to regional misinformation than meaningful analysis.

More broadly, these recurring Iranian accusations always loud, always vague, and always unsupported by evidence; suggest a deeper political motive. For years, Iran has struggled to accept that Azerbaijan is an independent, sovereign state capable of forming strategic defense partnerships in line its national interests. Tehran’s discomfort seems rooted not in any real security threat but in the erosion of its influence in the South Caucasus, a region where the geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically since 2020.

By constantly inventing stories about Israeli bases, mysterious drones, or imaginary threats, figures like Haqiqetpur appear to be attempting to justify Iran’s increasingly hostile rhetoric toward Azerbaijan. Yet these stories collapse under the slightest analytical scrutiny. If the claims were true, Tehran would provide evidence. Instead, it gives only speeches long, dramatic, and ultimately incoherent.

Iran would do well to remember a simple reality: Armenia, whose air-defense Haqiqetpur now portrays as superior even to Iran’s, was defeated decisively by Azerbaijan in just 44 days. That war demonstrated the effectiveness of Azerbaijan’s modern military strategy and technological superiority, qualities that are acquired through legitimate partnerships and transparent procurement.

Haqiqetpur’s statements reveal more about Iran’s internal anxieties than anything occurring in Azerbaijan. When accusations rely on contradictions rather than facts, they serve only to expose the accuser's cinfusion, not the alleged target. Tehran must decide whether it wants to continue promoting narratives that undermine its own credibility, or finally engage with the region on the basis of realism, respect, and facts.