Eldar Jahangirov: "The next five years will be stable"

- I would start with an actual question: who, do you think, will win the upcoming presidential elections and will they be democratic?

- Ilham Aliyev will win. As for democracy, everything is on the due level here.

- Why do you think Ilham Aliyev will win?

- In the mid of the last century a man of wisdom once said that profession of a leader is primarily the exact compliance of promises and their execution. If we compile a table, consisting of a left part to include ideas of the electoral rhetoric of Ilham Aliyev of 2003 and a right part including the results of his work, we will see a balance in most of the lines in this table. This balance, consistence, predictability, pragmatism and targeting for the final result is a guarantee of success.

Moreover, Ilham Aliyev's historical contribution to the political life of our country is that he, as a president, set a high rail for the future leaders of Azerbaijan. We are living in an eastern country, where not only the essence, but also a shape sometimes have a decisive role. In the coming 5-10 years Azerbaijan will hardly accept any other president, who does not know languages, has no deep knowledge in the sphere of economy, infrastructural projects, energy, is unable to build relations with the leading world players. And I, as a citizen and as a father of my child, am worried that we have no micro-environment for raising competitive leaders.

- But can we speak of the democracy of the upcoming elections in conditions of their boycott by the leading opposition powers?

- Those, who are automatically called the leading opposition powers by inertia of the mid and late 1990s, are neither leading nor powers at all. These are marginalized groups of people, who have not been able to adjust the form and essence of their existence to the demands of the political market for years.

It seems important to me that these groups are united by the striving "against!" but not "for!". They are united by the hatred towards the powers. Such a stimulus as hatred can rarely become a uniting factor  and it may be effective in a short-term perspective. But in the long-term perspective hatred is always destructive.

Purely technologically the overall current electoral cycle is complete: there is a favorite, who has a background of alternative and even caricature candidates. All the registered candidates have access to mass medias, have funds. The rule of law has been observed. I think neither western or CIS and GUAM observers will have claims about the elections.

- How do you see the future of the opposition parties, who decided to boycott the upcoming presidential elections?

- These parties have no future not only because they do not participate in these elections, but because there is a real gap between the demands of the political market of Azerbaijan and what these parties may offer. This gap is growing each year.

- And finally how do you see the next five years of the political life of Azerbaijan?

- I think the coming year of two will pass by inertia, caused by the recent events in the Caucasus, the global financial crisis and the overall process of reorganization of the contemporary world. A passive phase of preparation for 2013 presidential elections will start upon expiration of this term. In a year before elections the passive phase will turn into active. The renewal of the political landscape of the country will occur and we will see new figures on the political arena.

It will be possible to define sources and resources to form new powers in 2010-2011. The internal situation will develop focusing on economy. Infrastructural projects, information technologies will develop.

Most citizens of our country will perceive the results of these processes. As for the external policy, I think the reformation of international organizations, such as UN, OSCE, IMF, WTO and SOC is possible. The reformation process will influence the protection of our national interests. The next five years will be stable.

/Day.Az/