Rasim Musabeyov: "Armenia and Azerbaijan have already sketched for themselves the script of a reaction, appropriate for Moscow"

- What is behind Russia's recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia?

- Moscow decided to use maximally the situation with Georgia, as this decision was taken immediately. In case of any delay, it would have been difficult to take it.

Moscow decided to bring this situation to the point, maximally profitable for it for the deals and any possible talks for resolution of the Georgian issues to be further based on the new situation, created by Russia.

- After recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the situation in the Caucasus region has worsened. By some information, NATO ships are already concentrated in the Black Sea and the United States has sharply condemned Russia's actions. Can a new round of military confrontation be predicted in such a situation with the involvement of more weighty players?

- Russia has demonstrated intention to attain its goals even by armed way for building its influence area. I do not think that the world will agree with Russia's actions.

At the same time, I do not think that west's response will cause military confrontation in the South Caucasus.

- Can the South Ossetian crisis automatically transfer to Azerbaijan?

- Nothing can occur automatically. Most will depend on Azerbaijan's position. It is clear and Moscow is aware that Baku's position may not fully meet Russia's expectations. The Kremlin can not expect Baku to support its decision. Notably, Moscow can not expect it even from Armenia. At the same time, Azerbaijan and Armenia have already sketched for themselves the script of a reaction, appropriate for Moscow. Unless this policy  meets "Moscow's appropriate realities", no tough actions from the side of the Kremlin should be expected.

Nevertheless, Moscow's actions certainly led to the tough clash of interests of the West and Russia. Therefore, it would be more difficult for Azerbaijan to conduct its balanced position.

- Can you explain why?

- Everything will depend on West's support to Georgia and Russia's intention to increase pressure, including on Azerbaijan. If this pressure gains inadmissible forms and scales, Azerbaijan will certainly incline to cooperation with the West.

If Russia's pressure is not so strong, if efforts are made to soften the confrontation with the West, if demonstrating toughness towards Georgia Russia will demonstrate inclination towards compromises in the conflicts around Karabakh and Transdniestria, different reaction can be expected.

Everything will depend on West's reaction and its readiness to resist the empire plans of Russia, as regards the South Caucasus and the limits of actions, Russia will set in its attitude to Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately, Baku's policy is more reactive than strategic. But considering the geopolitical realities it can not be otherwise.

- Is it possible that Russia will do the same with Azerbaijan, speculating on the recognition of Nagorno Karabakh?

I would repeat: it will depend on Azerbaijan's behavior. In other words, if Georgia and further Azerbaijan are invited to join NATO and we accept it, stepping beyond the red line, Russia has drawn for itself, and cutting all ties with it, we will have to be ready to Moscow's tough attempts to impose pressure on Baku.

Events in Georgia showed that it would be difficult to resist Russia's pressure alone, including for Azerbaijan, which has such a hostile neighbor as Armenia. If Azerbaijan does not get West's support, it would be impossible to resist Russia's tough pressure.

- How will the West and the United States act in the future?

- I think the level of support to Georgia by the West will be high. At the same time, it should not be expected that West will return Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia. It is undoubted that the West will not allow Russia to do whatever it wants. Moscow is aware that if it continues raising pressure on Georgia and starts actions against Azerbaijan, it may lead to changes in Turkey's attitude, which is loyal to Russia so far. Even if Erdogan and his government does not want it, they will be forced to it by the Turkish community and army. Turkey has impressive power and this is certainly the most scary script, which may expel Russia from the South Caucasus. This script is dangerous first of all for the population of the South Caucasus and we do not wish its implementation.

I think Russia understands that it should not go beyond the limit. It has pressed out everything that it could from the situation for the further deal. Recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is not the final in the said issue. It would not be Kosovo's variant. It would be the variant of Northern Cyprus, as the recognition of Northern Cyprus by Turkey did not remove the unification of the Cyprus from the agenda. UN continued to deal with this issue. Though, Turkey recognized Northern Cyprus, it prompted Kofi Annan's plan, which envisages unification of the Cyprus.

Therefore, I think that recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will not remove the settlement issue from the agenda, including in the framework of the territorial integrity of Georgia.

Another question is that Russia may demand Georgia's neutralization and many similar things, which in fact allow it to attain all the goals, it sets in the South Caucasus. I am afraid Russia longs to execute the same model towards Azerbaijan by creating autonomies and confederations.

/Day.Az/