Baku has made another strong move in the regional game

What comes first - politics or economics? Can economic cooperation strengthen peace and prevent wars?

Many people have tried to find answers to these questions. For example, Karl Marx believed that the economy is the primary foundation on which all other superstructures, including politics, culture, religion, and so on, are built. Montesquieu argued that "the natural effect of trade is to promote peace." The 18th-century American philosopher and journalist Thomas Paine believed that "if trade were allowed to operate to its full potential, it would eradicate the system of war." In the 19th century, British politician and industrialist Richard Cobden advocated free trade, arguing that it would "tend to unite humanity in a bond of peace." In the late 20th century, American journalist Thomas Friedman suggested that countries that were economically developed enough to afford a McDonald's chain had never fought each other, leading to the development of a conflict prevention theory.

Of course, all of this is just theory. In practice, economic interests do not always stop wars if politicians are unable to see beyond their own noses. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that Europe, which has been embroiled in wars for hundreds of years, has experienced peace since the creation of the European Union. The EU countries have become so economically interconnected that wars have become unprofitable, and shared borders have made territorial disputes irrelevant. The EU serves as an example of how the economy can suppress political conflicts in modern times. This is a valuable lesson for the South Caucasus.

All wars have always been fought for territory or resources, although they have always been "refined" with other motives. This does not include liberation wars, which are rare in history and even more so in terms of success. As a rule, wars of conquest changed borders, which were rarely restored. Azerbaijan's 44-day Patriotic War was one of the few exceptions.

Having restored its territorial integrity and fully secured its sovereignty after a thirty-year occupation, Azerbaijan continues to amaze the world by acting "outside the rules." Instead of seeking to bankrupt Armenia, whose aggression has caused our country proven damage worth hundreds of billions of dollars, Azerbaijan is opening transit routes for the former aggressor. Baku was expected to take back part of Armenia's territories as the victor, engage in years of legal battles for reparations, further isolate its neighbor, and so on. However, it has chosen a different approach to neutralizing the Armenian threat. He offered the former aggressor peace and economic cooperation, although objectively, the aggressor did not deserve either.

On October 21, in a press statement with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President Ilham Aliyev announced news that caused a stir both in Armenia and in other interested circles. Azerbaijan lifted all restrictions on the transit of goods to Armenia, which had existed since the occupation, and the first such transit cargo was a shipment of Kazakh grain to Armenia, according to the Azerbaijani leader.

There were many things happening in the world last week, but this news was the number one story. It came as a surprise to everyone, including the Armenians. The Armenian government was hesitant to be the first to share the news with the public. Usually, the authorities take a long time to announce bad news, but in this case, it seemed like a cause for celebration. However, things are not as simple in Armenia, and some view the Kazakh grain being transported through Azerbaijan as an attempt at "economic expansion." The fact is that the absence of harsh measures on the part of the victor was mistakenly perceived by some as a sign of weakness and gave hope to revanchist circles. These circles believe that Armenia should have proudly refused Azerbaijan's logistical support and sought it elsewhere.

It should be noted that the search would not have been successful. To the south, Armenia has sanctioned Iran, to the north, the occupied territories of Georgia are closed for transit, and there is a problematic border crossing at Larse, followed by sanctioned Russia. In the west, there is a closed border with Turkiye. This leaves only Georgia, which cannot provide Armenia with comprehensive support without the involvement of Azerbaijan.

This raises the question of whether Armenia is willing to sacrifice its political misconceptions for the sake of economic development. When we say "Armenia," we are not referring to Nikol Pashinyan and his enlightened team, but rather to the Armenian society, which is still influenced by the unhealthy narratives of the revanchists.

 Serzh Sargsyan commented on Baku's move, describing the logistics of transporting Kazakh grain to Armenia through Azerbaijan as "uncomfortable."

As Sargsyan noted in an interview with journalists, this is not the shortest or most cost-effective route for delivering the gas. The former president of Armenia has a poor understanding of geography and logistics in the region. A simple glance at a map reveals that the shortest route from Kazakhstan to Armenia passes through Azerbaijan. Of course, if the Zangezur corridor had already been constructed, transit would be even easier. However, the lack of a route is not our fault. It is not even Nikol Pashinyan's fault. The blame for this lies with the revanchist circles that have been stirring up society and preventing the prime minister from doing the right thing for the past five years. It is only now, with the support of the United States, that he has finally made a decision. However, two months after the Washington meeting, signs of stagnation are once again emerging.

Serzh Sargsyan at least tried to remain dignified in his assessments, but his associates were in a real rage. Eduard Sharmazanov, Deputy Chairman of the Republican Party led by Sargsyan, was in a frenzy. "Shame! Shame!" he wrote in the media. A representative of the party, which was based on the ideology of Nzhdeh, wrote: "Tomorrow, they say, Azerbaijani oil and gas will arrive. And the day after tomorrow, the Azerbaijanis themselves will be in the same position, and in a few years we will admit that we have become servants in our own country." He is outraged that someone is "eating wheat from Azerbaijan with gusto" while Armenians are no longer in Karabakh and war criminals are on trial in Baku.

Sharmazanov doesn't understand "how it was possible to carry out such a diversion against the value system of an entire society in just a few years?". Indeed, it is remarkable that in just two years, there have been signs of enlightenment in the minds of a society that has been brainwashed for over a century. The ugly and destructive value system of Armenian society benefits those who were ousted from power in 2018. For decades, they have relied on fear-mongering about Azerbaijanis, and Sharmazanov doesn't understand why this is no longer effective.

In his hysterical note, he recalled a very revealing fact. In August and September 2023, separatists playing the "blockade" game prevented trucks carrying flour for the "starving" Armenians from passing through. Even the 40 tons of flour delivered to the Aghdam road by the Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society were not allowed to pass through on the trucks of Russian peacekeepers. They claimed, "We refuse to accept Azerbaijani bread." People who had been eating Azerbaijani bread for a hundred years got into a pose, but this Nazi slogan worked against them. It became clear to everyone that there was no famine in Karabakh, and the "blockade" was just a show of force by the separatists in order to regain control of the Lachin road.

 It must be said that this move by the Azerbaijani side was very strong. The opening of Azerbaijani transit for goods destined for Armenia was also a strong move.

Armenian society needs to be gradually accustomed to the idea that economic interests, social well-being, and prospects are much more important than political fantasies. Azerbaijan is not engaged in charity in this case, and it is not going to sacrifice its own interests. The decision it has made should be viewed as a gesture of goodwill. Someone needs to initiate practical normalization. A lot of words have been said so far, and it could take an eternity for Yerevan to take the first step due to the political specifics of the country.

A sovereign state, as Armenia considers itself to be, cannot rely on the diaspora, allied grants, and the re-export of sanctioned Russian goods for the long term. These sources are not sustainable and do not provide a solid foundation. Instead, Armenia must focus on fostering free and mutually beneficial regional cooperation. The country's primary concern should be its trade relations with its neighboring countries rather than with India or the United States. If there is a gap in the regional landscape before the name "Armenia," there can be no talk of development.

So we wish the citizens of Armenia a pleasant appetite. And let it not be spoiled by the truth that the bread in their stores is made from grain delivered through Azerbaijan.