Armenia wants Europe without giving up Russia’s economic lifeline

The 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek was not only a rich and productive event, but was also notable for some particularly interesting exchanges between heads of state and government. When Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed Armenia’s membership of the Eurasian Economic Union, or, more precisely, whether Armenia should make a “concrete” choice between the Eurasian Economic Union and Europe, the somewhat tense expressions on their faces did not go unnoticed.

When the Armenian Prime Minister raised the issue of a referendum, saying that it should be “the choice of the people”, a certain sense of displeasure was clearly visible on Vladimir Putin’s face. After listening to the Armenian Prime Minister for several minutes, Putin made it clear that he fundamentally disagreed with his arguments. His judgemental gaze towards Pashinyan almost suggested that he viewed Armenia as betraying Russia.

What is particularly interesting is that, despite Vladimir Putin presenting some serious figures on Armenia’s economic development during the discussion, Armenia’s confident posture did not change. For example, Putin’s reference to the $20 billion increase in Armenia’s nominal GDP between 2015 and 2026 was clearly not accidental. Armenia’s nominal GDP is now approaching $30 billion, and Putin’s pointed look towards Pashinyan appeared to suggest that Armenia owes part of this economic progress to its membership of the EAEU.

So why is Armenia willing to make its continued membership conditional without appearing concerned about breaking away from such an economic chain of growth?

Pashinyan acknowledges that his country is not yet in a position simply to choose the European Union and fully integrate into the European market, and that such alternatives are not currently realistic. He has even said that holding a referendum on choosing between the two sides would be inappropriate.

It therefore appears that Armenia is, for the time being, pursuing a policy of sitting on two chairs, even if this does not satisfy Moscow.

Of course, when the economic figures are considered, it is possible to see why breaking away from the organisation led by Russia is not yet necessarily in Armenia’s interests. Since the European Union has not yet delivered economic results for Armenia on the same scale as Russia, it is clear that Nikol Pashinyan will not be able to leave the Eurasian Economic Union easily.

This means that the gesture of moving closer to the European Union could simply be seen as a bluff – or as Yerevan playing hard to get with Moscow…