Russian expert: No real Armenia-Turkey reconciliation

“The process of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols is linked with progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Turkish side is free in its actions regarding the final decision. Turkish PM Erdogan’s U.S. trip showed that the Obama Administration has no hard arguments against Turkey’s tough and also consistent position. This trip did not meet expectations of those who thought that Obama would put pressure on Erdogan, or demonstrate a different position as Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin did at a meeting with his Turkish counterpart in Moscow in mid-January. Ankara will patiently wait for a breakthrough in negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia,” the Russian expert said.

“You can also assume that negotiations will only intensify and accelerate till April 24. The situation may repeat the beginning of spring last year when the OSCE Minsk Group mediators flew from one capital to another several times. However, the promised breakthrough never happened though there were all prerequisites for this. Little has changed since then. In the meantime, the Obama administration has less options to evade commitments to recognize the so-called  “Armenian genocide” made during the election campaign. This time it will be extremely difficult not to offend Turkey and also not turn away from Armenia. It's easier to make efforts to move the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations forward which already seriously annoys both Moscow, Washington and Europe. Turkish parliamentarians will expect result, otherwise protocols’ ratification can be delayed for a long time,” the expert said.

“I do not believe that the decision by the Armenian Constitutional Court undermined the whole process, because the essence of the fundamental law of this country and the Declaration of Independence were well known to all. I think that the CC referring to the declaration was meant for the “domestic use”, otherwise the protocols without reservation would come into discord with aims and objectives of the Armenian state. The protest against the protocols and imposing friendship with Turkey is very strong in Armenia and mention of the Declaration’s goals should remind everyone that the ruling Republican Party does not betray its provisions,” the expert added.

"Turkey’s response is very proportionate given it that does not also hurry to ratify the protocols for the aforementioned reasons. Each of the sides try to accuse each other. In this context, there is no need to expect a real reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey. In the case of the impact of other adverse events, cancellation of the protocols or some kind of postponement in their implementation is not ruled out,” he said.  

T. Teymur