U.S. expert: Armenia-Turkey relations must be normalized simultaneously with withdrawal of Armenian troops from territories around Nagorno-Karabakh

The Azerbaijani participants to the conference on security in the Caucasus held in Baku unanimously criticized the West and the EU for passive attitude to the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. What are reasons for the absence of such an interest in Europe?

"Europe" refers to the European Union. The European Union still has no common foreign policy. EU tries to develop such a policy, but it still does not work. France does not represent the European Union in the "troika" of the Minsk Group co-chairs. France acts for itself, not on behalf of the EU. Energy interests of the influential European nations do not coincide. There are a number of European countries that have no particular interest in energy supplies from Azerbaijan or the entire Caspian basin. Other European countries have such interest. But the situation is that those European countries which have vital interests in the Caspian energy resources are not the most influential actors within the European Union. That is the situation within the EU.

There is one more thing that I would like to say in this regard. Governments and forces that decide foreign policy in Europe do not connect analysis of energy security with analysis of foreign policy in general and foreign policy towards the South Caucasus as a whole. These two analysis are conducted in parallel, but not together.

Are Armenian troops likely to withdraw at least at the first stage from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan soon?

It is unpredictable. A lot can happen in the interim period from today until April. April is a key term for obvious reasons. A lot can happen in Turkey and South Caucasus during this period, especially in the domestic politics of Turkey, in estimations of Washington and, of course, in estimations of the Azerbaijani government. Developments are very unpredictable. "Key" is not in Washington, not in Moscow, not in Baku, but the Turkish public opinion.

If Azerbaijan continues to work successfully with the Turkish public opinion, it could significantly impact these processes.

Does everything depend on Turkey?

A lot depends on Turkey. Following the August events that happened last year, Turkey initiated the Stability and Cooperation Platform in the Caucasus excluding  EU and the U.S., who also have interests in the region, from this mechanism. However, the Turkish leadership has made inconsistent statements so far.

As I mentioned at a conference in Baku, President Barack Obama drove himself into a trap, promising Armenians a program to recognize the so-called "Armenian genocide" if elected president. Now he cannot do it for fear of spoiling relations with its strategic ally of Turkey. It is impossible to predict how Obama will act in April.

Progress can be achieved in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in case normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia and opening of border will take place in parallel with withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territories. But these plans can be undermined by possible decision in April.

Therefore, I believe that normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations should be conducted in parallel with withdrawal of Armenian troops from areas around Karabakh. But the very parallelism is not enough. In my opinion, we need a synchronization of these two processes so that they occasionally overlap with each other.

Quick solution to the conflict is impossible. It is obvious. Progress is possible if the U.S. will be faithful to the game in the region. I believe that Washington should not sacrifice Turkey’s interests. Finally, U.S. needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the United States. Efforts should be made to normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey which recently experienced a blow. Let us hope that we will see that after Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan forthcoming visit to the U.S.


/Day.Az/