Day.Az: Do you believe the Turkish and Armenian parliaments will ratify the protocols signed between the countries?
Anar Mammadkhanov: I think that the Armenian parliament will ratify the Turkish-Armenian protocols and will require a similar step from the Turkish side. But the Turkish parliament, which is really democratic and dependent on views of country’s people, will ratify the Turkish-Armenian protocols until liberation of Azerbaijan’s Armenian-occupied territories.
Q: What will happen next once the scenario you suggest is realized?
A: It will be followed by a mutual accusations which will give a rise to more actively involvement in a regular process of reconciliation efforts by leading world powers. But an attempt to exert pressure on Turkey, for example, from the U.S. and the EU is doomed to failure like an attempt by Madame Gritsatsuyeva to regain Ostap Bender, who, incidentally, was presented as a son of Turkish official. Indeed, in response to them, the U.S. and the EU, but not Madame Gritsatsuyeva will hear absolutely reasonable and truthful statement of the Turkish leadership that it is unable to influence decisions by its own members of parliament.
After this scenario happens, I do not rule out that the Armenian side will experience equally unpleasant emotions, such as those experienced by archivist Korobeinikov who issued a free warrant indicating location of the chairs searched by "great schemer". It is possible that the Armenians will all together sing "the old song about the main thing" in chorus claiming that Turkish-Armenian protocols make no mention of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
But no one will listen these chants. Armenia is a country which over a dozen years ignored the fact that Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is recognized all over the world and numerous UN resolutions and other influential international organizations call for the liberation of all occupied Azerbaijani territories.
Secondly, we live in a world of real politics. The realities imply that vast majority of representatives of Turkish society are against opening of Turkish-Armenian border without the return of Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territories. Therefore, people engaged in real politics need to understand that the Turkish government delays ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols.
In addition, Turkish authorities have reiterated on many occasions that these are two parallel processes and Azerbaijan enjoys larger geopolitical and geo-economic importance in the world.
Q: Former Armenian Foreign Minister Alexander Arzoumanian said that the protocols will be ratified after a breakthrough in resolving the Karabakh issue. Recently, similar statements are made in Armenia more frequently. Does this mean that the process of disillusion has started in the Armenian society?
A: I believe it is a forced disillusion. There are different causes for the forced disillusion. First, it is like a case when a man who loves to drink runs out of money and no one lends it to him.
Secondly, it is similar to a case when a body no longer takes alcohol. So, there is parallelization of the two causes of forced disillusion in Armenia. Armenia faces a terrible economic situation that has led to a loss of interest to Armenia by investors while the "the body" - the mind of citizens of this country has refused to accept the idea of living in seclusion, knowing that the only way to “cure” lies through normalization of relations with all its neighbors which implies the return of all Armenia-occupied territories of Azerbaijan. This is understandable. After all, we still see only the first results of the impact of global economic and financial crisis on Armenian economy. Next will be even worse.
So, it is high time to sobber up. Otherwise, figuratively speaking, it would be too late to drink mineral water owing to neglect of kidney disease: a real war threatens the complete loss of Armenian statehood.
Q: Will the factors you cited lead to an adequate, fair position by the Armenian government in the negotiations to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
A: I am convinced that Armenia's isolation caused by the occupation of Azerbaijan’s territories was sooner or later bound to increase external and internal problems of this country. After all, we are dealing with a classic case of "boomerang effect", when evil launched to the sky returns back in a form of very painful sensations. Years have passed and growing number of citizens in Armenia begin to understand this. I hope that leaders of this country will also understand it.
I would be appropriate to quote Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev who said: "Personally, I have no doubt that the Azerbaijani lands will be liberated from the invaders. The main question is whether by peaceful or military ways.” To be exact, Azerbaijan will never reconcile with the loss of its land and is ready to return them in any way. Remember the thesis by Winston Churchill's, brilliant politician and diplomat who brought the theory about what losses can a state afford during a war without undermining foundations of its nationhood and gene pool.
Azerbaijan is ready to return Armenian-occupied territories through military means without risking to undermine the foundations of statehood and gene pool. Armenia, on backdrop of its current poor economic and demographic status, is not ready for hostilities and they could be the beginning of end of its statehood. This is the most powerful argument for the Armenian leadership to take a truly constructive stance in the negotiation process to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Akbar Hasanov
Day.Az
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