Vladimir Sokor: "Russia will maximally hinder the resolution of the conflict in order to preserve levers of influence both on Armenia and on Azerbaijan"

The negotiation process in all conflicts is following its own way and conflicts are not connected with each others. Therefore, there are no grounds to expect any precedent to create a basis for the resolution of another conflict, said US political scientist and senior research assistant of Jamestown's Foundation Vladimir Sokor, asked about possible influence of the Georgian-Russian war on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

"Conflicts are never settled on the basis of precedents. This never happens. It was just Russia's propaganda. Moscow used this propaganda due to the conflict in Kosovo. At that time it said that all conflicts must be settled by one and the same model. But Russia never said which principle it supports: either the principle of territorial integrity or the right of nations for self-determination. It only said there can be the only example, but it is unclear which. Russia's goal was to maximally hinder the resolution of the conflicts in order to get levers of influence on the conflict parties.

Therefore, I think Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will have no influence on Moscow's position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Russia will maximally hinder the resolution of the conflict in order to preserve levers of influence both on Armenia and on Azerbaijan

As for the charter of strategic partnership and its possible influence of peace in the South Caucasus region, he said such documents are not intended to bring peace.

"The goal is quite clear here - to ensure Georgia's security. This charter is a framework document for security of Georgia. Certainly it will contribute to regional security.

I can say with pleasure that this charter will be profitable for Azerbaijan. The fates of Georgia and Azerbaijan are directly connected. The national project of establishment of a successful state in Azerbaijan depends on its access to the West via Georgia. It is absolutelay clear that if Georgia is unstable and unsafe, Azerbaijan's access to the West is blocked. It means that Azerbaijan will have to transport energy sources to the West via Russia. Therefore the security and stability of Georgia is vitally important for Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan will be in a good situation. Georgia gets military aid from the United States and probably from some other NATO states. Azerbaijani does not get this aid. It means that Russia will not be angry with Azerbaijan. This means that in the end Azerbaijan's security will be ensured without a conflict with Russia.

As for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, he said it affected Russia's image as energy supplier to West.

"It means that Western Europe including EU and large corporations will take more intensive measures to open a direct access to Caspian oil and gas fields via pipelines. Azerbaijan will benefit from this situation, playing two roles: producer country and energy transitting country. Azerbaijan will become a key country not only for ensuring implementation of such projects as Nabucco or the Turkey-Greece-Italy or Baku-Tbilisi-Erzirum gas pipelines but also as a transit country for Turkmen and Kazakh oil and gas. This strengthens Azerbaijan's position including in talks and consolidates political and diplomatic position of Azerbaijan in the relations with the West.

This is a very favorable situation for Azerbaijan. I think that Azerbaijani and SOCAR leadership will use this situation effectively and not the way Turkey does. Turkey due to its geographical location is merely blackmailing EU and even Azerbaijan, in talks regarding gas.

But I am sure that the Azerbaijani leadership is represented by competent people who will take a correct decision to be profitable both for Azerbaijan and Europe.

/Day.Az/