You attended one of the most prestigious political forums - Wilton park.
What are Your impressions of the forum? What issues were on the focus of
attention at this conference?
Wilton park conference, conducted since 1946, is one of the most
prestigious forums in the world, uniting well-known experts, political
scientists and representatives of the political elite at different times. The
current conference was devoted to the South Caucasus. It was attended by Deputy
Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Araz Azimov, the ambassador of Azerbaijan to the
UK Fakhraddin Gurbanov, Deputy Prime Minister of Georgia, Minister for
Reintegration Timur Yakobashvili, First Deputy Minister for European and
Euro-Atlantic Integration of Georgia Tamara Berchuashvili, EU Special
Representative for South Caucasus Peter Semneby, Deputy Foreign Minister of
Armenia Karina Kazanyan, well-known experts Svante Cornell, Brenda Shaffer,
Oksana Antonenko, Sabina Fraser, John Roberts. The main topics of discussion at
the conference were conflicts, the main issue - the opening of Turkish-Armenian
border and the consequences of the Georgian war.
I was surprised by the position of the Turkish side who claimed that the
border between Turkey and Armenia should be opened. However, the Azerbaijani
delegation insisted that exactly closing borders is a stimulus for Armenia to
solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and liberate the occupied territories. This
view was supported by Brend Shaffer and Svante Cornell. The Armenian delegation
insisted that the issue of opening the borders should be considered separately
from the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.
Regarding the statement by the Armenian delegation that the people of
Karabakh have the right to self-determination, the British expert Stephen Bolt
noted that the right to self-determination belongs to the African and Asian
countries, which fought for independence in 1960, and is not acceptable to the
issue of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Much attention was also paid to the Georgian war in 2008. The Georgian side
presented its plan to resolve the situation. The first step to resolve the
situation should be the demilitarization of the territories, the second - it is
people's diplomacy, third - to find ways of cooperation between Georgia and
South Ossetia.
The last panel of the forum was devoted to questions of democratization in
South Caucasus countries. My speech focused on the fact that the process of
democratization in South Caucasus is a long way, which can not be performed for
18 years of independence of these countries. During the forum, were also made recommendations for the EU for cooperation
with countries of South Caucasus.
Upon completion of the conference, I made a number of conclusions. Firstly,
the EU does not understand our realities and our internal problems. Secondly, in
my opinion, the West is too optimistic about the opening of Turkish-Armenian
border, believing that it is even useful for the peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. All our arguments that the situation is only getting
worse from obstinacy of Armenia have not led to results. In my opinion, the
forum took place on a too optimistic note and the West does not understand how
Armenia is ill with nationalism and creates problems in any negotiation
process.
What is the role of the West in the South Caucasus now, after the war
in Georgia, where many geopolitical accents were removed?
After President Obama came to power, a certain lowering is felt in the
U.S. interest in Georgia. Bush relied on Georgia, but now the U.S. fully focuses
on the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia, giving preference
to this project in the region. Both the U.S. and the EU and Russia are ready to
support processes that will help Armenia in the future leave the economic
isolation. With regards to the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, still the West does
not insist on the liberation of Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenians,
believing that this can be achieved after the opening of borders. According to
the West, to solve two issues at once is more difficult than one after the
other, and therefore, yet our position on the linkage of opening borders and the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not in their understanding and support.
Such a policy of the West and Turkey can get into question the existence of
such a strategically important project as Nabucco, and Azerbaijan gradually can
increase the volume of gas supplies to Russia.
In Your opinion, is Turkey afraid to lose Azerbaijan?
According to Turkey, Azerbaijan should not be jealous for rapprochement of
Ankara and Yerevan, but in my opinion, there is a potential threat for Turkey to
lose Azerbaijan. It needs to understand that Ankara's foreign policy priorities are changing
and Azerbaijan is no longer the only strategic ally in the region. In my
opinion, Turkey is connected with Russia by even closer partnership than with
Azerbaijan.
Why does the process of ratification of the protocols by the Turkish
Parliament is being delayed?
Turkey underestimated Azerbaijan. The Turkish government thought that it
would easily pass the protocols through parliament, not expecting such an active
and sharp reaction from Azerbaijan. In my opinion, this was an absolutely
correct position of official Baku, because after such a reaction, the Turkish
government had to reckon with the opinion of Azerbaijan.
The mistake of the ruling Turkish party was that they expected progress in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They did not consider that Armenia will not make
compromise in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Closer to April, pressure on Turkey
will increase and eventually, Ankara can give up its positions and open borders,
changing the tone of its political statements.
What is the role of Russia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement
and in the South Caucasus?
Azerbaijan's mistake is that we still believe that Russia can somehow
influence Armenia. However, Armenia plays its game, and as far as we do not
count on the support of President Medvedev, Armenia is unlikely to make
compromise in the issue of status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the coming months.
However, in the near future, Azerbaijan can really get closer with Russia and
the situation in the region can change. If earlier in the Caucasus there were
clear alliance ligaments: Russia-Armenia, Turkey - Azerbaijan, West - Georgia,
after the Georgian war, the accent changed. And now Azerbaijan considers Russia
as a strategic ally. At the moment everything is going to ensure that Russia
becomes stronger, and the West's position in the South Caucasus is weakening.
Now, Turkey and Russia become major players in the Caucasus.
/Trend/ | 
