Today.Az » Analytics » Fantasies without borders: Armenia sees United States and Turkey as instigators of war
23 April 2010 [14:34] - Today.Az

The frost is getting much, much worse. Armenia is seriously discussing Turkish-U.S. attempts to provoke Azerbaijan and resume hostilities.

The first symptoms of the disease appeared prior to talks in Washington between the presidents and foreign ministers of Turkey, Armenia and the United States.

Yerevan invented a scenario, according to which Ankara would make every effort to ensure that Azerbaijan attacks Armenia if the Washington talks fail, thus forcing Turkey to try to bank the fire. The logic is simple. Turkey thinks Azerbaijan would force Armenia to become flexible in the negotiations with both Baku and Ankara.
Meanwhile, Armenia boasted the “invincibility” of its army, which can allegedly withstand a blow from Azerbaijan, launch a counterattack and win an overwhelming victory, capturing even more territory.

Following the failed talks in Washington, Armenia claims that Azerbaijan now has another “provoker.” This time, it is the United States, which is also a OSCE Minsk Group co-chair. Allegedly, the Americans have decided to side with Azerbaijan from here on in. Armenia believes that Washington is dreaming of radical changes in the South Caucasus and sees no other way out than war. Armenia supposes that Azerbaijan will shape the region in the way most advantageous for the United States.

Terrible logic, isn’t it? In a similar way, Armenian analysts can figure out what would happen to Russia. And, why not, if they have such an unbridled imagination?

In the meantime, the reality contradicts Yerevan’s suppositions. Let's start with Turkey.

Ankara has obligations to NATO. Besides, as a NATO member, it cannot get directly involved in conflicts. NATO, as is well known, is not involved in the Karabakh issue and is not willing to get involved (except indirectly by promoting the peace process).

Resuming large-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan can only exacerbate Turkey’s headache in the region. It is worth remembering that in August 2008, the Turkish leadership advanced an initiative called the "Platform for Cooperation and Stability in the Caucasus.” The platform has not yet been approved, just like the Armenian-Turkish protocols that emerged later.

To get involved in another war (either directly or indirectly) will not benefit Turkey at all. Of course, Turkey wants the Karabakh conflict to be resolved through peace, not war. Otherwise, it would not have engaged in various and often risky diplomatic games with covenants and protocols.

How could Armenia invent U.S. "provocation?” The brain of a Homo sapiens is unable to comprehend why the United States needs this, and why Azerbaijan should yield to White House provocation.

The United States simply has no reason to do this at all.

Armenian thinkers need to know that Azerbaijan does not need any provocation. The country has enough reasons to start a war. Mediators brought a document fit for both sides to the negotiations table after years of talks. Azerbaijan approved them, while Yerevan has been slow to do so.

In the meantime, Armenia is the major provoker. Let Armenia accept the aforementioned document and eliminate any chance of war. No “third powers” are involved here.

K. Guluzade
Day.Az writer

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