World Bank improves Ukraine 2023 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, 4% in 2024

The World Bank is forecasting an increase in Ukraine's 2023 GDP of 3.5%, with a 4% increase in 2024, which are 1.5 percentage points and 0.5 pp. higher than June estimates respectively, the October World Bank report on the Europe and Central Asia region said, Azernews reports, citing Interfax.

The economic growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026 will stay at 6.5%.

"More stable electricity supplies, increased government spending, large foreign aid, a better-than-expected harvest, and improved consumer and business confidence contributed to a gradual pick-up in activity in H1 this year, following a sharp decline a year ago," the World Bank said, explaining its improved forecast.

The forecasts depend on the availability of external financial support and the situation in the country, the WB said. "Economic conditions in Ukraine remain extremely challenging amid escalating security risks, additional damage to infrastructure, renewed pressure on energy prices and capacity constraints on grain transport routes to international markets," the report said.

As reported, in 2022, Ukraine's GDP, according to the State Statistics Service, fell 29.1%.

At the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2023 from 2% to 2.9%, but lowered its forecast for 2024 from 4.3% to 3.5%.

The Ministry of Economy forecasts Ukraine's GDP growth in 2023 at 4%, and at 5% next year.