Russia’s base in Armenia is burden neither side wants to carry

It seems to be both necessary and unnecessary at the same time—and this is true for both Yerevan and Moscow.

Pashinyan does not appear particularly interested in keeping the Russian military base. He might well prefer to see it gone, but the existing agreements with Moscow make it impossible to simply demand its withdrawal. At the same time, he cannot straightforwardly say, “Leave.”

Moscow, for its part, needs the base, while publicly insisting that it is Armenia that needs the Russian military presence more.

This creates an almost absurd situation. Moscow seems to be telling Pashinyan: “If you really want us to leave, say so, and we will—but there will be consequences.” Pashinyan, in turn, responds: “If you want to leave, then leave. We are not asking you to stay.” Yet at the same time, Yerevan is not formally demanding the withdrawal of the Russian base from Gyumri.

And so the base remains in Gyumri—simultaneously considered necessary and unnecessary, wanted and unwanted.

Absurd? Perhaps. But this is what modern geopolitics can look like.