Baku has launched peace program: will Yerevan see it through to end?

At the “SCO+” meeting, the President of Azerbaijan spoke briefly, but he said the most important things in a few paragraphs.A little over a year ago, Azerbaijan and Armenia put an end to a conflict that had lasted for more than 30 years by initialing the text of a peace agreement. By doing so, the South Caucasus region, which had been a zone of long?standing conflicts, is turning into a zone of peace, said President Ilham Aliyev. And that’s true. The situation is changing. Not only does the visible picture change, but the atmosphere around it also changes.

These conclusions suggest themselves when you observe the events and pay attention to the moments that don’t immediately catch the eye, getting lost amidst external noise and interference. And there was a lot of noise in the first days of September. True, not as much as the revanchist opposition would have liked, which intended to turn the anniversary of Armenia’s biggest mistake into a campaign against the authorities. We’re talking about the “day of independence of A?r?c?h?a?k”. The diaspora, the church, and the internal opposition tried to turn this date, which had been consigned to oblivion, into a kind of moment of truth, a reason for the “revival of the national idea,” but the day passed as usual. Even the media did not pay as much attention to the event as before. The Karabakh issue is slowly but surely fading from the agenda, although the church and revanchist circles are doing their utmost to prevent this from happening.

During the "festive" services in Etchmiadzin and the churches of the Diaspora, Armenians were openly invited to fight for "independence" and return to Karabakh. It was argued that the Karabakh issue is not buried and should, as before, occupy a high place on the Armenian agenda. Appropriate prayers were offered, and heaven was asked to bless this criminal struggle, which would result in new bloodshed and loss of statehood. 

However, in Armenia itself, all this did not arouse much public interest. Armenian society has already begun to get used to the idea that the “Karabakh movement” is over and cannot be revived. This stance of the official authorities is gradually eroding traditional notions and penetrating the consciousness of Armenian society, and it is not encountering much resistance. To the great surprise and displeasure of the opposition, the passions surrounding foreign territories are steadily weakening. We are not talking about social media, where the diaspora, which continues to cling to its former illusions, sets the tone. Bloggers, most of whom live in other countries, are trying to stir up passions in Armenia, but their efforts remain superficial, without penetrating to the deeper level. The brainwashed masses, of course, cannot shake off their dependence in three years, but the process is underway.

The Karabakh issue has run its course. It defined the meaning and rhythm of life in Armenian society for a very long time. Now, Armenian society is looking for new reference points. A heavy burden has been lifted from Armenia’s neck — the burden of appropriating foreign territories. If the world had recognized the fact of the appropriation, the burden would not have been so heavy. But the world did not recognize it, and for more than thirty years, Armenian society has been enduring the occupation in the hope of a miracle. Three years ago, a short period, nevertheless, the neighbors managed to feel how everything changed for them after Azerbaijan freed them from this yoke.

Peace, with all the numerous benefits that come with it, is the best reference point. It has already been more or less accepted. The next milestone should be ridding Armenian society of the possibility of a relapse. This will require surgical intervention, and Nikol Pashinyan is preparing citizens for this painful procedure, explaining the inevitability of purging the Constitution. The delimitation of the border will also bring many unpleasant moments for the neighbors. It is very difficult to move to normal ideas about the limits of one’s capabilities after having believed for three decades that they do not exist.

The main thing is that the process is underway. Three years ago, during these same days, the Prime Minister of Armenia congratulated the separatists on their holiday, and today, overcoming serious resistance from his fellow countrymen, he is consigning the “Karabakh movement” to oblivion. The head of the Security Council, Alen Simonyan, who, when he was parliamentary speaker, accused Baku of “ethnic cleansing,” today reprimands the opposition for trying to talk about Armenia’s allegedly occupied territories. Everything changes.

Simonyan told journalists that an agreement was reached at the meeting with Hikmet Hajiyev, an assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, in Bishkek to implement new mechanisms to resolve the remaining unresolved issues.

This is good news. Of course, three years is not a long time. Moreover, one year has passed since the initialing of the peace treaty and the practical launch of the peace agenda. However, global processes are moving too quickly, and we shouldn’t fall behind them. For the South Caucasus to be proactive, the remaining issues between Azerbaijan and Armenia should be addressed as quickly as possible. Here, we are primarily talking about the Armenian side. Alen Simonyan did not provide any details. Nevertheless, let us assume that the discussion concerned accelerating work on amendments to the Constitution of Armenia. Delimitation is also one of the key issues, but it is a two?way process, and Baku can regulate it if necessary. However, purging the Constitution of toxic elements is solely Armenia’s responsibility, and Baku cannot influence this.

Pashinyan, speaking recently in parliament, reaffirmed once again that the new fundamental law should not contain any reference to the Declaration of Independence. The very one that designated Azerbaijani Karabakh as part of Armenia. This is commendable, and now everything depends on the ability of Pashinyan’s team to overcome the resistance of the revanchist opposition. In principle, they have already demonstrated that they are capable of doing so. But the Constitution will be the most difficult test for Yerevan. And it cannot be avoided, because the signing of peace will depend on how Armenia navigates it.

The development of economic relations seems much simpler. Again, because this is also a bilateral process, largely dependent on Azerbaijan and regulated by it.

At a meeting held within the framework of the SCO summit in Bishkek, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed the possibilities for further expanding economic cooperation. The expansion of ties between business circles, the possibility of launching mutual trade and the development of energy cooperation were discussed.

The beginning of mutual trade has become the main topic in the context of the economic agenda of Baku and Yerevan. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan spoke with joy about the launch of this process, and Nikol Pashinyan mentioned it repeatedly. The day before, he once again stated that “Azerbaijan will purchase products from Armenia for the first time.” According to him, the first export deal has already taken place, and all that remains is for the purchasing company itself to announce it.

Such mystery in the statements from the Armenian side and the lack of specifics from the Azerbaijani side create a certain intrigue. Indeed, this is interesting — which product from Armenia will be the first to reach Azerbaijan in the post?conflict era, which put an end to this conflict? 

We can be confident about the economic agenda also because it involves the interests of such a global power as the United States. These interests are focused on the transport and logistics sector, which is very important for the Azerbaijani side, which is expecting the opening of transit to Nakhchivan.

On Tuesday, representatives of Armenia and the United States made a joint visit to Syunik, where work continues on implementing the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) program. The TRIPP program’s Facebook page states that “the visit reflects the expanding partnership between Armenia and the United States and our shared commitment to ensuring peace, prosperity, and connectivity in the South Caucasus.”

Azerbaijan has always advocated for peace, prosperity, and cooperation in the South Caucasus. It has made sacrifices to achieve these goals. Someday, not only Armenia’s ruling party and its electorate, but the entire Armenian society will understand that everything was done not “against” but “for.”