Armenia and the CSTO: what does Azerbaijan have to do with it?

It’s quite amusing to watch the verbal skirmishes between the Armenian and Russian sides regarding the CSTO. It’s amusing because neither side wants to tell the truth about the reasons, even though they know it perfectly well.

The day before, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan commented to journalists on the words of Maria Zakharova, the official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, on the topic “Armenia and the CSTO.” Zakharova, in turn, responded to the earlier statement made by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the same topic.

Let’s take it step by step.

On August 27, Pashinyan explained why, in the government’s program for the Republic of Armenia for 2026-2031, Russia is referred to as a partner, but not a strategic ally. The whole issue revolves around the events of September 2022 on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, during which, according to the Armenian prime minister, Russia and the CSTO failed to fulfil their security obligations towards Armenia.

This refers to a large-scale provocation carried out by the Armenian Armed Forces in mid?September 2022 in the Dashkesan, Kalbajar and Lachin sectors of the state border. On the night of September 13, Armenian sabotage groups, taking advantage of the mountainous terrain and gorges, mined the areas between the positions of the Azerbaijani Army and the supply routes. At the same time, fire was opened from Armenian positions on the other side of the border on the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. The Azerbaijani side responded to the enemy in a manner that left no doubt about the seriousness of the situation. The Armenian provocation escalated into a serious military clash. Given that since the beginning of that autumn, the presence of armored vehicles, artillery, and personnel had been increasing on the Armenian side of the border, it was possible to speak of the existence of certain far?reaching plans. Add to that the appearance in Khankendi during the same period of Ruben Vardanyan’s envoy. The overall picture, it seems, is clear. This provocation was not one of the traditional violations of the ceasefire by Armenia. Azerbaijan lost dozens of military personnel, while Armenia lost nearly one and a half hundred (officially recognized). Having received a powerful response, the enemy was forced to flee. Measures were taken to neutralize the positions of the Armenian Armed Forces, which posed a constant threat.

And this operation was presented by Yerevan to the international community as an “act of aggression and occupation” of the sovereign territories of the Republic of Armenia..

Armenia failed to achieve its goal of revenge, but it tried to turn the situation to its advantage.

As early as September 13, an emergency meeting of the organization’s Council was held at Yerevan’s request, and a decision was made to send a CSTO mission to Armenia and to establish a working group for continuous monitoring of the situation in the organization’s area of responsibility. As it turns out from Ararat Mirzoyev’s words, Yerevan was expecting something different. If not military action against Baku, then at least tough statements and other measures of psychological pressure. But, as we know, there is always someone who assumes and someone who has the power to act.

It should be recalled that by that time, a European Union mission was already operating along the borders with Azerbaijan, and Moscow hoped to take advantage of the emerging opportunity to deploy a CSTO mission there as well. No one intended to go to war with Azerbaijan on behalf of Armenia from the outset, and Yerevan was well aware of this. Yerevan was counting on getting the right to express its dissatisfaction with the CSTO, to be offended, and to begin the process of withdrawing from the organization. And that is exactly what happened. In 2024, Armenia announced the suspension of its participation in the CSTO and refused to pay membership dues. Membership in such a military bloc was incompatible with her European aspirations and hindered them, but a reason was needed to withdraw. And one was found.The matter did not come to the creation of a mission, as Nikol Pashinyan refused to sign the relevant document. The presence of the CSTO on Armenian territory was not part of Yerevan’s plans. However, an immediate divorce was also not part of the plans. As we can see, over the past four years, the parties have not shown a strong desire to get rid of each other. Nothing but an exchange of grievances and recriminations. Yerevan continues to claim that the CSTO has failed to fulfill its obligations, while Moscow maintains that Armenia simply did not give the organization such an opportunity. And the latter is much closer to the truth.In response to Zakharova’s words, Ararat Mirzoyan, who is in Bishkek for the SCO summit, told journalists that “Armenia did not receive from its CSTO allies the assistance it had the right to expect.” In Yerevan, they don’t want to expand on the matter and provide a more detailed explanation of what kind of assistance Armenia was counting on. But, if we rewind the footage from the past few years, we find the answer.

In October 2022, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, at an extraordinary session of the CSTO Collective Security Council, criticized Pashinyan’s position without resorting to excessive diplomacy. Pashinyan had proposed that CSTO members determine their position and prepare a roadmap for restoring Armenia’s territorial integrity.

“You demanded that we define our position. Don’t you know our position? We want the conflict between the neighboring states to be resolved peacefully. Second question: provide a roadmap for restoring Armenia’s territorial integrity. What roadmap? I’ll answer that right away: sit down with Ilham Aliyev, and if necessary, ask the President of Russia, and make a decision. If you don’t make a decision today, it will be worse,” Lukashenko said.

The Belarusian leader seemed to have foreseen it. A year later, Armenia and the Armenians lost the Azerbaijani territories for good. While Yerevan demanded from the countries that are fraternal to Azerbaijan a roadmap against Baku, Baku relieved it of this torment.

Lukashenko very clearly told the Armenian side that it would not be the case where on one side there is the CSTO and on the other — Azerbaijan. Because Azerbaijan is not an enemy to anyone in the CSTO.

This is the truth that Moscow and Yerevan are trying to avoid citing as arguments in their verbal skirmish. And yet it is very important. They also do not mention the absence of borders that the Azerbaijanis allegedly violated. For thirty years, the Armenian occupation forces considered ten thousand square kilometers of internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan to be their own, and neighbors cannot lay claim to anything or demand anything until delimitation and demarcation are carried out. Baku does not rule out that during this process there may be some adjustments stemming from the principles of good-neighborly relations and mutual understanding. But talk about “occupied territories” must stop. The events of September 2022 did not lead to the alleged occupation of sovereign Armenian square kilometers, but rather to the fact that the Armenian Armed Forces were pushed back from the positions they had held during the years of occupation, and along with them, a serious threat was eliminated. Today, one can say, there is no threat, and it is not worth reviving it.

Armenia wanted to withdraw from the CSTO without any problems, and the bloody provocation on the border was used as a pretext to achieve this goal. To some extent, it succeeded. She hasn’t paid her membership fees for two years, expecting to be expelled from the organization. Now this issue is just beginning to be considered. Yerevan acted in an Eastern manner, so to speak. He didn’t want to write “of his own accord”; he agreed to be dismissed with a record being made in his personal file. Anyway, he’s moving to the West, and what will be recorded in his Eurasian “sivi” doesn’t matter.   

Azerbaijan doesn’t lay claim to the internationally recognized territories of its neighbor. This is common knowledge; even the United States knows about it, let alone Yerevan. The grand plans that were being drawn up in the autumn of 2022 failed, and we won’t go into detail now about who was involved and how. This is history, a page turned over. The main thing is that Azerbaijan thwarted these plans, taking, without exaggeration, brilliant preemptive steps and disarming the forces opposing it.

And finally, I would like to address the Russian side. There’s no need to constantly reproach Pashinyan for signing the Prague Agreement and recognizing Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Otherwise, we might start thinking all sorts of things...