Decline in Azerbaijan's trade with CIS countries signals economic shift

The recent disclosure by the State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan sheds light on the evolving dynamics of trade between Azerbaijan and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The reported trade volume for January-April 2024 reveals both significant figures and notable declines compared to the previous year, prompting a closer examination of the economic implications.

Trade operations totaling $1.92 billion between Azerbaijan and CIS countries during the first four months of 2024 underscore the substantial economic interactions within the region. However, this figure represents a 10.3% decrease from the same period in 2023, indicative of shifting trade patterns.

Notably, trade operations with CIS countries constituted 32.3% of Azerbaijan's total trade turnover during the reporting period, emphasising the significance of these partnerships in the country's economic landscape.

During this period, the value of Azerbaijan's trade turnover with various countries decreased.

Specifically, with Russia, it amounted to 1 billion 308 million 456 thousand US dollars (5.7% less compared to a year ago), with Ukraine 152 million 922 thousand US dollars (44.6% more), with Turkmenistan 150 million 614 thousand US dollars (49.2% less), with Belarus 137 million 63 thousand US dollars (22.1% more), with Kazakhstan 87 million 269 thousand US dollars (47.9% less), with Uzbekistan 50 million 944 thousand US dollars (6.9% less), with Kyrgyzstan 24 million 728 thousand US dollars (2.7 times more), with Moldova 3 million 422 thousand US dollars (15.3% less), and with Tajikistan 2 million 208 thousand US dollars (78.2% more).

Detailed Analysis

Russia: Despite remaining a key trading partner, trade with Russia witnessed a 5.7% decline compared to the previous year, amounting to $1.31 billion.

Ukraine: Trade with Ukraine surged by 44.6%, reaching $152.92 million, indicating potential opportunities for expanded collaboration.

Turkmenistan: A significant decrease of 49.2% in trade with Turkmenistan, totaling $150.61 million, suggests challenges or shifts in bilateral relations.

Belarus: Trade with Belarus experienced a noteworthy increase of 22.1%, reaching $137.06 million, possibly reflecting strengthened ties between the two nations.

Kazakhstan: Trade with Kazakhstan decreased by 47.9%, amounting to $87.27 million, signalling a notable downturn in economic activity.

Uzbekistan: Despite a moderate decline of 6.9%, trade with Uzbekistan stood at $50.94 million, maintaining a stable but slightly reduced level of engagement.

Kyrgyzstan: Trade with Kyrgyzstan exhibited a significant increase, rising 2.7 times to $24.73 million, indicating a potential area for further exploration and investment.

Moldova: Trade with Moldova saw a modest decrease of 15.3%, amounting to $3.42 million, suggesting relatively stable but slightly reduced trade relations.

Tajikistan: The most notable increase was observed in trade with Tajikistan, surging by 78.2% to $2.21 million, potentially signalling emerging opportunities in bilateral trade.

The disclosed trade data between Azerbaijan and CIS countries for January-April 2024 provides valuable insights into the evolving economic landscape of the region. While the overall trade volume remains substantial, the notable declines in trade with key partners like Russia and Turkmenistan, along with significant increases with others like Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, indicate a dynamic shift in trade dynamics. Understanding these trends is crucial for policymakers and businesses alike to adapt strategies and seize emerging opportunities amidst changing economic realities.