OPEC’s share of global liquids output to fall to its lowest level since late 1980s

By  Trend

OPEC’s share of global liquids output is expected to fall to its lowest level since late 1980s in the first part of the BP Outlook, which covers the period by 2040, Trend reports citing BP.

In the Evolving transition (ET) scenario, total US liquids production accounts for the vast majority of the increase in global supplies out to 2030, driven by US tight oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs).

"US tight oil increases by almost 6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in the next 10 years, peaking at close to 10.5 Mb/d in the late 2020s, before falling back to around 8.5 Mb/d by 2040. The strong growth in US tight oil reinforces the US’s position as the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels," reads the report.

As US tight oil declines, this space is filled by OPEC production, which more than accounts for the increase in liquid supplies in the final decade of the Outlook, according to BP.

"The increase in OPEC production is aided by OPEC members responding to the increasing abundance of global oil resources by reforming their economies and reducing their dependency on oil, allowing them gradually to adopt a more competitive strategy of increasing their market share."

The stalling in OPEC production during the first part of the Outlook causes OPEC’s share of global liquids production to fall to its lowest level since the late 1980s before recovering towards the end of the Outlook, according to BP.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers reached an agreement in December 2016 to curtail oil output jointly and ease a global glut after more than two years of low prices. OPEC agreed to slash the output by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1.

Non-OPEC oil producers such as Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan, and South Sudan agreed to reduce output by 558,000 barrels per day starting from January 1, 2017.

OPEC and its partners decided to extend its production cuts till the end of 2018 in Vienna on November 30, as the oil cartel and its allies step up their attempt to end a three-year supply glut that has savaged crude prices and the global energy industry.

The 5th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria, on December 7, 2018.

The meeting participants decided to adjust the overall production by 1.2 million barrels per day, effective as of January 2019 for an initial period of six months. The contributions from OPEC and the voluntary contributions from non-OPEC participating countries of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ will correspond to 0.8 million barrels per day (2.5 percent), and 0.4 million barrels per day (2 percent), respectively.