Neither the United States nor the Western power structure will permit the recent bellicose rhetoric between Turkey and Israel to escalate as far as armed conflict, an international relations scholar has said.

Despite this, violence that could erupt in the region in the wake of a U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood later this month would likely have a negative effect on Turkey, Hasan Köni, a professor at Istanbul’s Kültür University, told the Hürriyet Daily News this week.

The people directing Turkey’s foreign policy have traditionally not chosen to refer any problems with another country to a third party because of a lack of confidence in third-party mediation. Why, then, did the Turkish government push for the establishment of a U.N. commission to probe Israeli killings in last year’s Gaza-bound flotilla? Is it because they thought Turkey was so right that there would be a result in Turkey’s favor or did they simply disregard their old way of thinking?

The second is true. The government distanced itself from classical Turkish foreign policy. In addition to rationalism, each new administration’s policies are also influenced by their culture and psychology. This administration has an affinity with the Arab world and this influences their policy around 20 percent of the time, let’s say. Hüseyin Gülerce [a columnist for the pro-government daily Zaman] even wrote that the U.S. equals Israel and Israel equals U.S. and Europe.

‘Let’s not be emotional,’ he said, meaning let’s not reflect our cultural emotions in foreign policy. Even a person within this cultural group has grasped the situation. International realities dictate that Turkey and Israel remain in the same Western power system.

It seems they have not understood the strength of the Israeli lobby in the United States. A member of the Justice and Development Party [AKP] was saying the other day on TV that the Turkish lobby is working like hell and that the Israeli lobby was not that influential. If there is such a perception, it means that they have not even grasped that Obama can’t exert pressure on the Palestinian issue because of fear of that lobby.

So is it because of this emotionalism that they could not foresee the outcome of the U.N. report, which proved to be in favor of Israel?

I think they are conducting the process with some advisers that are close to them, rather than with members of the Foreign Ministry. But that kind of structure might prevent rational analysis.

Then the government seems to have drawn no lessons from this experience since it is planning to take the case to the International Court of Justice, or ICJ.

These [decisions] come as a result of on-the-spot statements that are done without consulting experts.

Maybe the government has a game plan that escaped the eye of experts?

There is the aim of gaining the appreciation of the Arab world. But there should have been a bitter lesson learned from the Libya experience. Turkey refrained from bombing an Arab country with the hope that this would become an advantage for Turkey. But it was Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states that wanted to bomb Libya, [and they are part of] the Sunni bloc to which Turkey supposedly belongs. Turkey then had to send its Navy to Libya. This tells us that some Arab countries can be pro-American and that they ignore cultural dimensions and act according to the international system of interests. Lessons should have been drawn from that. It is understandable when Turkey gets furious for the killing of its citizens. But why is there so much enthusiasm for [breaking] the Gaza blockade?

So you don’t expect a successful outcome in the U.N. either, as the government plans to get the General Assembly to take a decision to refer the Gaza blockade to the ICJ.

It is very difficult. The Arab world is divided. Even in the case of the Goldstone report [on Israel’s 2008-2009 Gaza attacks], the Arab world was not successful even though they were right.

It looks like the prime minister won’t be able to go to Gaza.

The current administration is a military administration standing on its feet thanks to the billions of dollars it receive from the U.S. When you look at the Arab world, you see that the administrations that were close to the West are gone and that those who were against the West are still resisting. Isn’t that strange?

Turkey says it will guarantee freedom of navigation in the Mediterranean. Is there a possibility of an armed conflict between Turkey and Israel?

The U.S fleet is in the Mediterranean. I don’t think two important countries which are in the same power system will be allowed to have an armed clash. When problems remained unsolved, the media is used and there is too much noise.

But once Turkey said it would be more visible in the Mediterranean, surely its words cannot remain as mere rhetoric?

It looks very weird to me that Turkey would attack Israel with ships it purchased from the U.S. It could have been another story had it made its own ship and knew the capacity of the other side. A Greek leader had written in his memoirs that Turks and Greeks could not fight because the U.S. had blocked the ships and planes.

Some argue the Turkey’s and Israel’s past alliance was [just for convenience] and that it was bound to break up; they claim that it will now take a long time to mend fences.

I don’t think there is a deep tension between the two countries. The rhetoric used by both sides is very soft, not hostile. Israel says, ‘This is Turkey’s choice.’ Turkey calls Israel ‘the spoiled child.’

You find this rhetoric soft?

Compared to Iran and other Arab countries, it is soft. There is a lot of playing to the home fans but there is no news of the score. The boss is the same. Turkey and Israel are both in the same Western power system. Turkey cannot leave the Western power system.

What scenario is most likely to unfold after Sept. 20 following the U.N. General Assembly vote on Palestine’s bid to be recognized as a state?

These two weeks are very important. Even though there might be a positive outcome at the assembly, it will be vetoed by the Security Council. The Palestinians [are ready] to start an intifada once more if they are not recognized as a state. There could be an escalation of violence in the region.

The current situation in Turkish-Israeli relations will not change. But the developments in the region will affect Turkey. We know that from past experience. After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Armenian terrorism started. Leftist terrorism in the Middle East later had consequences in Turkey, which was also affected by the actions of Islamic groups that emerged due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Are you suggesting that terrorism will also increase in Turkey?

All the dimensions of the Kurdish problem are totally connected to the developments in the region. Once the support given to Turkey diminishes, you will be better able to see [everyone’s] unfettered positions.

Who is Professor Hasan Köni?

A very familiar face among the diplomatic, academic and security circles of Ankara, Professor Hasan Köni is a graduate of Ankara University’s Faculty of Political Sciences, a department famous for producing many civil servants.

He went to Michigan University for post-graduate studies on international law. He also gave courses to police and military cadets when he was on the academic staff of the Police Academy between 1981 and 2002 and the Military Academy between 1983 and 1990.

He moved to Istanbul in 2003 and is currently teaching at Kültür Üniversity.

He has numerous publications on issues such as Turkish-U.S. relations, terrorism, the Armenian question and maritime law.

Some of his books include “The decision-making system in the United Nations” and “The international politics of America.”

/Hurriyet Daily News/