Inflation expectations in January markedly declined in Uzbekistan

The main factor in predicting inflation remains currency exchange rate fluctuations, with 55% of respondents indicating this as a concern. This is followed by rising energy prices (49%), increased utility tariffs (39%), and higher wages and benefits (32%).

A more pronounced decline in inflation forecasts was seen among entrepreneurs, who recorded a year-beginning low since the start of 2023. The average level decreased by a percentage point to 12.7%, with the median slightly lower at 10.6%.

The highest forecasts, as in the previous month, were given in Samarkand (17.1%), followed by the Tashkent region (14.7%), and the capital (13.6%). The lowest price increases are expected in Bukhara (10.3%), Khorezm (10.6%), Kashkadarya (11.1%), and Karakalpakstan (11.3%).

By sector, the highest expectations were noted in culture (15.9%), IT (13.8%), and industry (13.3%). The lowest rates were foreseen by craftsmen (11.1%), restaurateurs, and medical professionals (12.3%).

Similar to citizens, entrepreneurs frequently cited currency dynamics (59%), fuel prices (43%), and utility costs (35%) as underlying reasons.