Expert: War in Karabakh may be inevitable if Armenia not compromises

By Azernews

By Rashid Shirinov

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is approaching its third decade of existence, but the situation in the region does not change in a positive way. The Armenian side continues its military provocations on the frontline, which periodically results in murder of Azerbaijani civilians residing in the frontline villages.

Yerevan continues to ignore the implementation of resolutions by the UN Security Council and other international organizations demanding an unconditional withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories and return of refugees to their homes. The Armenian leadership is trying to hamper the negotiating process over the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in a bid to preserve the status quo.

However, the resumption of peace talks remains the only reasonable solution for the settlement of the long-standing conflict. The OSCE Minsk Group, which is working to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, continues its efforts to organize the next meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, which is expected to be held this autumn.

Deputy Director of the Institute of Political Studies, Russian expert Daria Grevtsova expressed her point of view regarding the upcoming meeting of the presidents, as well as the positions of the parties on the settlement of the longstanding conflict.

“The meeting of Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia is being mulled for a long time. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has always been the initiator of negotiations and peaceful solution to the conflict. However, he is ready to meet not just for the sake of meeting, but for developing joint solutions to the problem," Grevtsova said.

However, she said, the Armenian side is satisfied with the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. "Therefore, President Serzh Sargsyan still has nothing to offer Ilham Aliyev. Most likely, the meeting of the presidents is delayed for this reason," the expert added.

Grevtsova warned that hostilities may resume in Nagorno-Karabakh if the negotiations not resumed. "The patience of President Ilham Aliyev is not infinite, and if there are no substantive talks and Armenia is not ready to compromise, the aggravation of the situation and a new war are quite possible,” the Russian analyst said.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding regions. More than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and over 1 million were displaced as a result of the large-scale hostilities. The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations.

Armenia still controls fifth part of Azerbaijan's territory and rejects implementing four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts.