TODAY.AZ / Business

World Bank improves forecast for Azerbaijan's GDP growth

09 October 2015 [11:51] - TODAY.AZ

/By AzerNews/

By Aynur Karimova

Following the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank has also improved its forecast on Azerbaijan's economic growth.

In its report on Azerbaijan, published on October 8, the World Bank forecasts Azerbaijan’s annual GDP growth to stand at an average of 2.4 percent between 2015 and 2017.

The growth of Azerbaijan's economy was predicted to stand at 1.5 percent in 2015, at 2.6 percent in 2016, and at 2.7 percent in 2017 in the World Bank's June report.

The International Monetary Fund has also improved the economic growth of Azerbaijan to four percent in 2015, which was earlier predicted at 1.8 percent. IMF has kept its forecast for economic growth unchanged at 2.5 percent for next year.

Asian Development Bank reported that it has kept its forecast for economic growth in Azerbaijan at a level of three percent in 2015 and at 2.8 percent in 2016, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development kept the growth forecast at 1.5 percent for 2015-2016.

The Azerbaijani government expects that in 2015 the real growth of the country’s economy will be 3.3 percent.

Oil output to continue to decline

According to the World Bank's new report, Azerbaijan's oil output will continue to decline, while capital expenditures of the government will be limited due to the decrease in world oil prices.

Also, the share of Azerbaijan's state investments in GDP will fall to 10.3 percent in 2015-2017, bringing down the non-oil GDP growth to four percent.

Meanwhile, the World Bank experts expect that in connection with construction of major gas pipelines --Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic pipelines-- between 2016 and 2017, the investments in oil and gas sector will significantly rise.

At the same time, according to the bank’s expectations, the state budget deficit is projected at 1.4 percent of GDP in the medium term.

The report also said that the oil prices will gradually recover in 2016-2017 and the government will consolidate the expenditures, its fiscal position will improve.

Local experts believe that the main factors that can affect the dynamics of the GDP are oil prices, the global competitiveness of the national currency, and funds allocated from the state budget for investment.

The total volume of Azerbaijan’s GDP in the first half of 2015 amounted to 26.3 billion manats, or 5.7 percent more than in the same period of last year, according to Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee.

Azerbaijan plans to export products worth $26.8 billion in 2015, some $2.7 billion of which will be goods in the non-oil sector. The Azerbaijani government predicts the share of non-oil sector in Azerbaijan's GDP to be at 65.1 percent for 2015, which is 5.5 percent higher than the forecasts for 2014 and 8.5 percent higher than in 2013.

URL: http://www.today.az/news/business/144257.html

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