OPEC crude oil production will continue to decline by 0.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2014, as some OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, reduce production to accommodate the non-OPEC supply growth in 2014, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook said.
EIA predicts OPEC oil production at 29.49 mbd in 2014 compared to 29.96 mbd in 2013.
In 2015 EIA expects OPEC oil production to slightly increase to 29.51 mbd.
"Although overall OPEC production in 2015 is forecast to remain close to its 2014 level, some key member countries continue to reduce their output to accommodate assumed recovery from production outages in Libya and growing production from other OPEC member countries, notably Iraq and Angola," EIA said in its report.
Unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged 1.8 mbd in 2013, nearly double the amount from the previous year, the report said. OPEC disruptions increased in the second half of 2013, reaching 2.5 mbd by the end of the year due to increased outages in Libya.
At the beginning of January 2014, EIA estimates that OPEC outages are still at elevated levels, contributing to considerable uncertainty over the forecast period.
EIA expects non-OPEC production to grow annually by 1.9 mbd in 2014 and 1.5 mbd in 2015, reaching 58 mbd in the second half of 2015. North America contributes the most growth to non-OPEC supply over the forecast period, according to the EIA's expectations.