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Optimistic oil figures in Iran’s draft budget for next Iranian year

13 December 2013 [10:00] - TODAY.AZ
The Iranian parliament will consider the draft budget presented by President Rouhani starting Dec. 14.

The New Year begins in Iran on March 20 and the amount of next year's budget is planned to hit 7830 riyals (growth will be 8.4 percent compared to the previous year). The exchange rate of $1 in the draft budget is planned to hit 26,000 riyals. In this case, the budget is planned to hit $301 billion, while the price of oil is set at $ 100 per barrel in the budget.

Around 31 percent of oil revenues will be transferred to the National Development Fund, 14.5 percent to the oil company next Iranian calendar year. In other words, $28.8 billion in oil revenues, which will be transferred to the state budget, will hit 54.5 percent of total oil revenues.

Thus, if one deducts the share of the National Development Fund and the oil company from the sale of oil, oil revenues are defined in the draft budget in the amount of 750 trillion riyals ($28.8 billion).

Around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day are planned to be extracted in Iran next year. This figure is more than the current figure by 600,000 barrels.

Currently, the price of OPEC crude oil is $108 and the price of heavy crude Iranian oil for the last ten months amounted to $105.46.

Demand for OPEC oil

In its monthly report on Nov.11, the International Energy Agency said that global oil demand in 2014 will increase by 1.2 million barrels and reach 92.4 million barrels compared to this year. But this growth will be due to an increase in oil production in non-OPEC member countries.

OPEC oil exports for the last month amounted to 29.633 million barrels per day in accordance with a report on Dec. 10. The International Energy Agency predicts that the demand for OPEC oil will decrease and reach 29.3 million barrels per day.

Despite the reduction in OPEC oil demand, it was stressed that oil production in Iran, Iraq and Libya will increase.

Oil production in Libya due to the mass actions and instability, which began in June, decreased from 1.4 million barrels per day to 250,000 barrels. Iraq currently produces 3.2 million barrels of oil per day and intends to increase this figure to four million barrels per day.

Iran's opportunity for export growth

On the other hand, Russia increased oil production to 10.610 million barrels per day in November. This is the highest figure in oil production since the USSR's collapse.

Mixed Ural oil, produced in Russia, accounts for 80 percent of all the country's exported oil. The quality of Iraqi oil and Russian Ural oil is similar to the quality of Iranian oil. They can seize Iranian export markets without any problems.

In its report, the International Energy Agency stressed that the export of oil and condensate from Iran in November was 850,000 barrels per day. This figure is expected to increase. It should be stressed that Iran exported 2.2 million barrels of oil and 300,000 barrels of condensate in 2011.

Domestic oil consumption in Iran is currently 1.681 million barrels per day.

The oil production index to the amount of 3.3 million barrels per day indicated in the draft budget is more than the domestic consumption and export by 770,000 barrels.

According to the International Energy Agency's report, Iran currently holds 22 million barrels of oil in tankers, as there are no customers for this oil.

Thus, the sale of an extracted 3.3 million barrels of oil per day is under question.

On the other hand, as a result of peak oil growth, crude oil production was 6.5 million barrels per day in 2012 and 7.5 million barrels per day this year. It is predicted that this figure will reach 8.5 million barrels by 2014, according to the statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Thus, more than 83 percent of the oil consumption growth next year will be achieved at the expense of oil produced in the U.S.

Dalga Khatinoglu   /Trend/


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